Exusia Digital
Investors

Risk register

What could go wrong.

Every investment committee builds this list. We would rather hand it over than have it assembled without us, and we would rather be judged on how we have thought about the downside than on how confidently we describe the upside.

  1. Gas supply

    Supply agreement not concluded, or volumes below model

    Impact
    High
    Likelihood
    Medium
    Mitigation

    Multiple producers approached in the same basin; project sized to the smallest credible volume; contract structured with take-or-pay floor.

  2. Hashprice volatility

    Digital-asset revenue falls below the level that underwrites the build

    Impact
    High
    Likelihood
    High
    Mitigation

    Modelled at conservative hashprice with sensitivity published in the model; modular capacity can be redeployed to AI/HPC workloads; capital structure isolates digital-asset exposure from the group.

  3. Permitting delay

    Regulatory approvals take longer than the twelve months modelled

    Impact
    Medium
    Likelihood
    High
    Mitigation

    Engagement started ahead of FID; milestone ladder published so slippage is visible rather than hidden.

  4. FX and capital controls

    Naira movement affects dollar-denominated capex and returns

    Impact
    High
    Likelihood
    Medium
    Mitigation

    Revenue in digital assets and USD-denominated compute contracts provides a natural hedge against local-currency exposure.

  5. Currency of demand

    Domestic AI compute demand arrives later than expected

    Impact
    Medium
    Likelihood
    Medium
    Mitigation

    Mining as the baseline workload means capacity is revenue-generating from day one regardless of when AI demand materialises. This is the central reason for the sequencing.

  6. Counterparty concentration

    Dependence on a single gas producer or a single compute customer

    Impact
    Medium
    Likelihood
    Medium
    Mitigation

    Pipeline deliberately spans three sites and three workload types.

  7. Security and access

    Site security in the operating region

    Impact
    High
    Likelihood
    Low to medium
    Mitigation

    To be completed with the security assessment for each site.

The register is updated every time a project changes tier.

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