Gas cost at wellhead, generation capex recovery over 10 years, O&M, parasitic load, 92% availability. Model v3.
As at August 2026. Financial model v3Assumptions and evidence tiers
How we classify every claim.
Every figure on this site carries a tier. This page says what each tier means and, for anything marked modelled, what the number is actually based on. If a figure cannot be tiered, we do not publish it.
The five tiers
- Evidence tier: Contracted
- A signed, binding instrument exists.
- Evidence tier: Permitted
- Regulatory approval is in hand.
- Evidence tier: In development
- Site secured and work under way.
- Evidence tier: Modelled
- Output of a financial or engineering model. Assumptions published.
- Evidence tier: Illustrative
- Explains a concept. Not a claim about our assets.
Why we do this
We are a development-stage company.
Publishing a large number without saying what it rests on would be easy and worthless. An investment committee's first job is to separate signed from hoped, so we do that work up front and in public. A figure moving from modelled to permitted to contracted is the only progress that counts.
The register
Modelled figures, and what they rest on
Sized to the smallest credible sustained gas volume at the Ughelli site.
As at August 2026. Financial model v3Sum of three identified sites where the group holds or is contracting generation. Not risk-adjusted: this is a gross figure, not probability-weighted.
As at August 2026. Financial model v3Modular containerised build, excluding generation which is held at group level. Compares against roughly $11.3M/MW for a conventional Tier III facility.
As at August 2026. Financial model v3Published industrial band tariff, converted at the prevailing rate. Public figure. Updated at each model version.
As at August 2026. Public tariff, model v3Market diesel price and typical genset efficiency. Market figure. Updated at each model version.
As at August 2026. Market prices, model v3Published wholesale average. Included deliberately because it is the least flattering comparison available and an investor will find it regardless. Public figure.
As at August 2026. Published wholesale averageModel v3, last updated August 2026. When the model changes, the version and this date change with it.
What is deliberately not on this site
No capacity we cannot tie to an energy source.
We do not publish a capacity figure we cannot tie to an energy source, a cost we have not modelled, or a date we have not planned to. The previous version of this site displayed a headline figure of 847 MW that was Lagos's forecast peak demand rather than anything belonging to Exusia Digital. That figure is gone and nothing like it will return.